A study of the effect of heat source location in a ventilated room using multiple regression analysis

Multiple regression analysis is a statistical technique which allows to predict a dependent variable from m ore than one independent variable and also to determine influential independent variables. Using experimental data, in this study the multiple regression analysis is applied to predict the room mean velocity and determine the most influencing parameters on the velocity. More than 120 experiments for four different heat source locations were carried out in a test chamber with a high level wall mounted air supply terminal at air change rates 3-6 ach. The influence of the environmental parameters such as supply air momentum, room heat load, Archimedes number and local temperature ratio, were examined by two methods: a simple regression analysis incorporated into scatter matrix plots and multiple stepwise regression analysis. It is concluded that, when a heat source is located along the jet centre line, the supply momentum mainly influences the room mean velocity regardless of the plume strength. However, when the heat source is located outside the jet region, the local temperature ratio (the inverse of the local heat removal effectiveness) is a major influencing parameter.

Including a time-of-year effect in the analysis of a matched case-control study

Motivated by a matched case-control study to investigate potential risk factors for meningococcal disease amongst adolescents, we consider the analysis of matched case-control studies where disease incidence, and possibly other risk factors, vary with time of year. For the cases, the time of infection may be recorded. For controls, however, the recorded time is simply the time of data collection, which is shortly after the time of infection for the matched case, and so depends on the latter. We show that the effect of risk factors and interactions may be adjusted for the time of year effect in a standard conditional logistic regression analysis without introducing any bias. We also show that, if the time delay between data collection for cases and controls is constant, provided this delay is not very short, estimates of the time of year effect are approximately unbiased. In the case that the length of the delay varies over time, the estimate of the time of year effect is biased. We obtain an approximate expression for the degree of bias in this case. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Medieval foreign exchange: a time series analysis

This chapter applies rigorous statistical analysis to existing datasets of medieval exchange rates quoted in merchants’ letters sent from Barcelona, Bruges and Venice between 1380 and 1310, which survive in the archive of Francesco di Marco Datini of Prato. First, it tests the exchange rates for stationarity. Second, it uses regression analysis to examine the seasonality of exchange rates at the three financial centres and compares them against contemporary descriptions by the merchant Giovanni di Antonio da Uzzano. Third, it tests for structural breaks in the exchange rate series.

Setting UK standards on the concept of control: an analysis of lobbying behaviour

The present study aims to contribute to an understanding of the complexity of lobbying activities within the accounting standard-setting process in the UK. The paper reports detailed content analysis of submission letters to four related exposure drafts. These preceded two accounting standards that set out the concept of control used to determine the scope of consolidation in the UK, except for reporting under international standards. Regulation on the concept of control provides rich patterns of lobbying behaviour due to its controversial nature and its significance to financial reporting. Our examination is conducted by dividing lobbyists into two categories, corporate and non-corporate, which are hypothesised (and demonstrated) to lobby differently. In order to test the significance of these differences we apply ANOVA techniques and univariate regression analysis. Corporate respondents are found to devote more attention to issues of specific applicability of the concept of control, whereas non-corporate respondents tend to devote more attention to issues of general applicability of this concept. A strong association between the issues raised by corporate respondents and their line of business is revealed. Both categories of lobbyists are found to advance conceptually-based arguments more often than economic consequences-based or combined arguments. However, when economic consequences-based arguments are used, they come exclusively from the corporate category of respondents.

The response of tropospheric circulation to perturbations in lower-stratospheric temperature

A multiple regression analysis of the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis dataset shows a response to increased solar activity of a weakening and poleward shift of the subtropical jets. This signal is separable from other influences, such as those of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and is very similar to that seen in previous studies using global circulation models (GCMs) of the effects of an increase in solar spectral irradiance. The response to increased stratospheric (volcanic) aerosol is found in the data to be a weakening and equatorward shift of the jets. The GCM studies of the solar influence also showed an impact on tropospheric mean meridional circulation with a weakening and expansion of the tropical Hadley cells and a poleward shift of the Ferrel cells. To understand the mechanisms whereby the changes in solar irradiance affect tropospheric winds and circulation, experiments have been carried out with a simplified global circulation model. The results show that generic heating of the lower stratosphere tends to weaken the subtropical jets and the tropospheric mean meridional circulations. The positions of the jets, and the extent of the Hadley cells, respond to the distribution of the stratospheric heating, with low-latitude heating forcing them to move poleward, and high-latitude or latitudinally uniform heating forcing them equatorward. The patterns of response are similar to those that are found to be a result of the solar or volcanic influences, respectively, in the data analysis. This demonstrates that perturbations to the heat balance of the lower stratosphere, such as those brought about by solar or volcanic activity, can produce changes in the mean tropospheric circulation, even without any direct forcing below the tropopause.

Bryozoan populations reflect nutrient enrichment and productivity gradients in rivers

1. The hypothesis that nutrient enrichment will affect bryozoan abundance was tested using two complementary investigations; a field-based method determining bryozoan abundance in 20 rivers of different nutrient concentrations by deploying statoblast (dormant propagule) traps and an experimental laboratory microcosm study measuring bryozoan growth and mortality. These two methods confirmed independently that increased nutrient concentrations in water promote increases in the biomass of freshwater bryozoans. 2. Statoblasts of the genus Plumatella were recorded in all rivers, regardless of nutrient concentrations, demonstrating that freshwater bryozoans are widespread. Concentrations of Plumatella statoblasts were high in rivers with high nutrient concentrations relative to those with low to moderate nutrient concentrations. Regression analyses indicated that phosphorus concentrations, in particular, significantly influenced statoblast concentrations. 3. Concentrations of Lophopus crystallinus statoblasts were also higher in sites characterised by high nutrient concentrations. Logistic regression analysis revealed that the presence of L. crystallinus statoblasts was significantly associated with decreasing altitude and increasing phosphorus concentrations. This apparently rare species was found in nine rivers (out of 20), seven of which were new sites for L. crystallinus. 4. Growth rates of Fredericella sultana in laboratory microcosms increased with increasing nutrient concentration and high mortality rates were associated with low nutrient concentrations. 5. Our results indicate that bryozoans respond to increasing nutrient concentrations by increased growth, resulting in higher biomasses in enriched waters. We also found that an important component of bryozoan diets can derive from food items lacking chlorophyll a. Finally, bryozoans may be used as independent proxies for inferring trophic conditions, a feature that may be especially valuable in reconstructing historical environments by assessing the abundance of statoblasts in sediment cores.

Why are some handaxes symmetrical? Testing the influence of handaxe morphology on butchery effectiveness

The morphology of Acheulean handaxes continues to be a subject of debate amongst Lower Palaeolithic archaeologists, with some arguing that many handaxes are over-engineered for a subsistence function alone. This study aims to provide an empirical foundation for these debates by testing the relationship between a range of morphological variables, including symmetry, and the effectiveness of handaxes for butchery. Sixty handaxes were used to butcher 30 fallow deer by both a professional and a non-professional butcher. Regression analysis on the resultant data set indicates that while frontal symmetry may explain a small amount of variance in the effectiveness of handaxes for butchery, a large percentage of variance remains unexplained by symmetry or any of the other morphological variables under consideration.

Observed trends and teleconnections of the Siberian high: A recently declining center of action

This study investigates variability in the intensity of the wintertime Siberian high (SH) by defining a robust SH index (SHI) and correlating it with selected meteorological fields and teleconnection indices. A dramatic trend of -2.5 hPa decade(-1) has been found in the SHI between 1978 and 2001 with unprecedented (since 1871) low values of the SHI. The weakening of the SH has been confirmed by analyzing different historical gridded analyses and individual station observations of sea level pressure (SLP) and excluding possible effects from the conversion of surface pressure to SLP. SHI correlation maps with various meteorological fields show that SH impacts on circulation and temperature patterns extend far outside the SH source area extending from the Arctic to the tropical Pacific. Advection of warm air from eastern Europe has been identified as the main mechanism causing milder than normal conditions over the Kara and Laptev Seas in association with a strong SH. Despite the strong impacts of the variability in the SH on climatic variability across the Northern Hemisphere, correlations between the SHI and the main teleconnection indices of the Northern Hemisphere are weak. Regression analysis has shown that teleconnection indices are not able to reproduce the interannual variability and trends in the SH. The inclusion of regional surface temperature in the regression model provides closer agreement between the original and reconstructed SHI.

Selenium supplementation of lactating dairy cows: Effect on selenium concentration in blood, milk, urine and feces

The objectives were to determine effects of graded levels of selenized yeast derived from a specific strain of Saccharomyces cerevisiae (CNCM I-3060) on animal performance and in selenium concentrations in the blood, milk, feces, and urine of dairy cows compared with sodium selenite; and to provide preliminary data on the proportion of selenium as selenomethionine in the milk and blood. Twenty Holstein cows were used in a 5 × 5 Latin square design study in which all cows received the same total mixed rations, which varied only in source or concentration of dietary selenium. There were 5 experimental treatments. Total dietary selenium of treatment 1, which received no added selenium, was 0.15 mg/kg of dry matter, whereas values for treatments 2, 3, and 4, derived from selenized yeast, were 0.27, 0.33, and 0.40 mg/kg of dry matter, respectively. Treatment 5 contained 0.25 mg of selenium obtained from sodium selenite/kg of dry matter. There were no significant treatment effects on animal performance, and blood chemistry and hematology showed few treatment effects. Regression analysis noted significant positive linear effects of increasing dietary selenium derived from selenized yeast on selenium concentrations in the milk, blood, urine, and feces. In addition, milk selenium results indicated improved bioavailability of selenium from selenized yeast, compared with sodium selenite. Preliminary analyses showed that compared with sodium selenite, the use of selenized yeast increased the concentration of selenomethionine in the milk and blood. There was no indication of adverse effects on cow health associated with the use of selenized yeast.

Soil moisture mediates association between the winter North Atlantic Oscillation and summer growth in the Park Grass Experiment

Several aspects of terrestrial ecosystems are known to be associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) through effects of the NAO on winter climate, but recently the winter NAO has also been shown to be correlated with the following summer climate, including drought. Since drought is a major factor determining grassland primary productivity, the hypothesis was tested that the winter NAO is associated with summer herbage growth through soil moisture availability, using data from the Park Grass Experiment at Rothamsted, UK between 1960 and 1999. The herbage growth rate, mean daily rainfall, mean daily potential evapotranspiration (PE) and the mean and maximum potential soil moisture deficit (PSMD) were calculated between the two annual cuts in early summer and autumn for the unlimed, unfertilized plots. Mean and maximum PSMD were more highly correlated than rainfall or PE with herbage growth rate. Regression analysis showed that the natural logarithm of the herbage growth rate approximately halved for a 250 mm increase in maximum PSMD over the range 50-485 mm. The maximum PSMD was moderately correlated with the preceding winter NAO, with a positive winter NAO index associated with greater maximum PSMD. A positive winter NAO index was also associated with low herbage growth rate, accounting for 22% of the interannual variation in the growth rate. It was concluded that the association between the winter NAO and summer herbage growth rate is mediated by the PSMD in summer.

In vitro degradability of mature and immature leaves of tropical forage legumes differing in condensed tannin and non-starch polysaccharide content and composition

A study was designed to examine the relationships between protein, condensed tannin and cell wall carbohydrate content and composition and the nutritional quality of seven tropical legumes (Desmodium ovalifolium, Flemingia macrophylla, Leucaena leucocephala, L pallida, L macrophylla, Calliandra calothyrsus and Clitotia fairchildiana). Among the legume species studied, D ovalifolium showed the lowest concentration of nitrogen, while L leucocephala showed the highest. Fibre (NDF) content was lowest in C calothyrsus, L Leucocephala and L pallida and highest in L macrophylla, which had no measurable condensed tannins. The highest tannin concentration was found in C calothyrsus. Total non-structural polysaccharides (NSP) varied among legumes species (lowest in C calothyrsus and highest in D ovalifolium), and glucose and uronic acids were the most abundant carbohydrate constituents in all legumes. Total NSP losses were lowest in F macrophylla and highest in L leucocephala and L pallida. Gas accumulation and acetate and propionate levels were 50% less with F macrophylla and D ovalifolium as compared with L leucocephala. The highest levels of branched-chain fatty acids were observed with non-tanniniferous legumes, and negative concentrations were observed with some of the legumes with high tannin content (D ovalifolium and F macrophylla). Linear regression analysis showed that the presence of condensed tannins was more related to a reduction of the initial rate of gas production (0-48 h) than to the final amount of gas produced or the extent (144h) of dry matter degradation, which could be due to differences in tannin chemistry. Consequently, more attention should be given in the future to elucidating the impact of tannin structure on the nutritional quality of tropical forage legumes. (C) 2003 Society of Chemical Industry.

Association between ovarian follicle development and pregnancy rates in dairy cows undergoing spontaneous oestrous cycles

Ovarian follicle development continues in a wave-like manner during the bovine oestrous cycle giving rise to variation in the duration of ovulatory follicle development. The objectives of the present study were to determine whether a relationship exists between the duration of ovulatory follicle development and pregnancy rates following artificial insemination (AI) in dairy cows undergoing spontaneous oestrous cycles, and to identify factors influencing follicle turnover and pregnancy rate and the relationship between these two variables. Follicle development was monitored by daily transrectal ultrasonography from 10 days after oestrus until the subsequent oestrus in 158 lactating dairy cows. The cows were artificially inseminated following the second observed oestrus and pregnancy was diagnosed 35 days later. The predominant pattern of follicle development was two follicle waves (74.7%) with three follicle waves in 22.1% of oestrous cycles and four or more follicle waves in 3.2% of oestrous cycles. The interval from ovulatory follicle emergence to oestrus (EOI) was 3 days longer (P < 0.0001) in cows with two follicle waves than in those with three waves. Ovulatory follicles from two-wave oestrous cycles grew more slowly but were approximately 2 mm larger (P < 0.0001) on the day of oestrus. Twin ovulations were observed in 14.2% of oestrous cycles and occurred more frequently (P < 0.001) in three-wave oestrous cycles; consequently EOI was shorter in cows with twin ovulations. Overall, 57.0% of the cows were diagnosed pregnant 35 days after AI. Linear logistic regression analysis revealed an inverse relationship between EOI and the proportion of cows diagnosed pregnant, among all cows (n = 158; P < 0.01) and amongst those with single ovulations (n = 145; P < 0.05). Mean EOI was approximately I day shorter (P < 0.01) in cows that became pregnant than in non-pregnant cows; however, pregnancy rates did not differ significantly among cows with different patterns of follicle development. These findings confirm and extend previous observations in pharmacologically manipulated cattle and show, for the first time, that in dairy cows undergoing spontaneous oestrous cycles, natural variation in the duration of post-emergence ovulatory follicle development has a significant effect on pregnancy rate, presumably reflecting variation in oocyte developmental competence.

The roles of olfaction and vision in host-plant finding by the diamondback moth, Plutella xylostella

The relative roles of olfaction and vision in the crepuscular host-finding process of a major lepidopteran pest of cruciferous crops, the diamondback moth Plutella xylostella are investigated in a series of laboratory and semi-field experiments. Flying female moths use volatile plant chemical cues to locate and to promote landing on their host, even in complex mixed-crop environments in large cages. Multiple regression analysis shows that both the plant position (front, middle or back rows) and the type of plant (host plant, nonhost plant) are needed to explain the distribution of insects in such a mixed-crop situation. This strong plant position effect indicates that, when host plants are present in a mixture, foraging P. xylostella are more likely to alight on the first row of the plants. The findings are discussed with regard to current theories of host-plant location by phytophagous insects and the possible implications for integrated pest management.